A 20-foot container from China to Southeast Asia has swung between roughly $1,500 and prices 70% higher within the same year — and that volatility, not the average rate, is what actually breaks a distributor's margin planning.
The numbers behind the swings
Spot indices tracking China-origin ocean freight climbed for five consecutive weeks in the first half of 2026, breaching levels roughly 70% above the lows seen earlier in the year. A 20ft container to Asia has run $1,500–$2,100 in calmer periods; a 40ft box to North America has touched $2,500–$3,400 in tighter ones. Rates this volatile mean a quote locked in March can be materially wrong by June.
Booking windows have gotten longer, not shorter
Carriers used to accept bookings a week out. Container yards running near capacity have pushed that to two-to-three weeks' pre-sailing notice on many routes, and space on the busiest lanes disappears faster than that. A distributor who books freight the way they did two years ago — a week before the factory finishes production — now arrives to a full sailing and a rate that's moved against them in the meantime.
What actually protects a shipment
We build freight into quotes as a range with a locked ceiling, not a single number, and we book vessel space as soon as a production date is confirmed rather than waiting for the goods to be ready. That earlier commitment costs a small deposit; it's cheaper than the alternative — a shipment sitting at origin for two extra weeks waiting for space at whatever the market rate becomes.
Ocean freight volatility isn't going away in 2026. Planning around it, instead of hoping the current rate holds until sailing day, is what keeps a wholesale order profitable from quote to delivery.